In 2024, the national price of graphite electrodes in China is expected to experience weak fluctuations, with a tendency to remain stable but slightly downwards in the second half of the year.
Raw Material Costs
From January to May 2024, China’s production of needle coke was 325,900 tons, marking a 24.03% decrease compared to 2023. Currently, needle coke prices are stable. However, the actual demand for petroleum coke has not met expectations, leading to a generally pessimistic outlook for its price trends.Market Supply
Graphite electrode manufacturers are currently maintaining reasonable supply levels. Some small to medium-sized enterprises are producing based on sales, but most manufacturers have not reduced production due to strong overseas demand and significant export volumes. Additionally, the increasing application of graphite electrodes in non-ferrous metals and yellow phosphorus smelting suggests that market supply is likely to remain stable.Market Demand
This year, the operating rate and capacity utilization of electric furnaces in China are below previous years, resulting in weak purchasing sentiment from steel mills and subdued downstream demand in the short term.Industry Policies
In recent years, the Chinese government has introduced various regulations and policies to accelerate technological innovation among graphite electrode manufacturers, promoting industry consolidation and the elimination of outdated capacity. With the growing number of large-capacity ultra-high-power electric arc furnaces, the development of large-diameter graphite electrodes is seen as a future trend. Continuous improvement in the technological level and competitiveness of products in China’s graphite electrode industry supports stable export volumes. However, the initiation of anti-dumping investigations on graphite electrodes imported from China by Japan on April 24 is not expected to have a significant impact, as exports to Japan account for less than 4% of total exports.Market Sentiment
Given the current developments in the domestic steel market, there is a prevailing pessimistic sentiment among graphite electrode manufacturers. Some industry insiders predict that demand for graphite electrodes may stabilize, with steel mills primarily purchasing through low-bid tenders. As of the end of June, declining raw material prices have slightly improved manufacturer profits, but downstream demand remains unfulfilled. Overall, it is anticipated that graphite electrode prices may continue to trend weakly in the second half of the year.
